The hottest economic recovery meets the cold sprin

2022-08-03
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Economic recovery meets with infrastructure investment or "taking the lead"

economic recovery meets with infrastructure investment or "taking the lead"

China Construction Machinery Information

Guide: three worries and one happiness in February data, and the economy is still in the recovery period. While exports rebounded strongly, the growth of imports and industrial added value in February slowed down more than expected. The PMI index, which was released almost at the same time as the macro-economic data in February, also fell again. The sustainability of the macro-economic recovery made the market more

february data "three worries and one happiness", the economy is still in the recovery period

while the export rebounded strongly, the growth of import and industrial added value in February slowed down more than expected. The PMI index, which was released almost at the same time as the macroeconomic data in February, also fell again, and the sustainability of the macroeconomic recovery raised doubts in the market

according to the interviewed insiders, on the whole, the economic growth has not deviated from the track of weak recovery, but the signs of weakening recovery momentum are more and more obvious in the data. Due to the recent real estate regulation policy and the recovery of consumer price index, there are still many variables in the direction of macro policy this year, and the uncertainty of domestic economic recovery is increasing

demand recovers only to the middle end

the downstream industry represented by general and special equipment manufacturing industry recovers better than the midstream industry represented by ferrous and non-ferrous metal rolling and processing industry, which is significantly better than the upstream industry represented by ferrous and non-ferrous metal mining industry

although the strong rebound in exports is surprising, the import volume representing domestic demand reflects the slow trend of domestic economic recovery

according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on March 8, China's export in February was 139.37 billion US dollars, an increase of 21.8% year on year, and its import was 124.12 billion US dollars, a decrease of 15.2%. However, judging from the fact that the PMI new export order index was lower than 50% in the previous two months, it is difficult to judge whether this strength is sustainable

domestically, the industrial added value data released by the National Bureau of statistics shows that from January to February 2013, the industrial added value above Designated Size actually increased by 9.9% year-on-year (the growth rate of the following added value is the actual growth rate after deducting the price factor), which is 0.4% lower than that in December 2012. This means that the cumulative growth rate of industrial added value in January and February this year ended the upward trend for four consecutive months

Xugao, chief Macro Analyst of Everbright Securities, said in an interview with China business daily (blog, microblog) that the cost is low: "We have already observed various signs of the weakening of the economic recovery momentum before, and believe that it will eventually be transmitted to the production side. Since the main driving force of the economic recovery that began in the third quarter of last year came from the government's promotion of infrastructure investment, state-owned enterprises should benefit the most from it. In January and February this year, the decline in the growth rate of industrial added value of state-owned enterprises was the most obvious, indicating that the weakness of the recovery momentum was transmitted from the demand side to the growth side." The data show that from January to February, the added value of state-owned and state holding enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year, significantly lower than the 8% in December 2012

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"now the economy can only be described as stabilizing, and has not achieved a comprehensive recovery, which is mainly reflected in the fact that the market demand has not been significantly transmitted to the upstream, driving the rise of raw materials, but only a weak recovery in some industries, which should belong to structural transmission." Huyuexiao, chief Macro Analyst of Shanghai Securities, said in an interview

his conclusion comes from the comparison of the recovery degree of different links of the industrial chain. At present, there are obvious differences in the recovery of upstream, middle and downstream industries. The recovery of downstream industries represented by general and special equipment manufacturing industry is better than that of midstream industries represented by ferrous and non-ferrous metal rolling and processing industry, and the latter is significantly better than the upstream industries represented by ferrous and non-ferrous metal mining industry

it seems that the demand recovery represented by the current acceleration of fixed investment has only reached the midstream industry

"this is one of the evidences to confirm the current 'weak recovery'." Huyuexiao also said that this time, different from the overall synchronous recovery of upstream, middle and downstream industries in 2009, the asynchronous phenomenon in this round of economic recovery cycle determines that the economy rebounds rather than reverses. The latter means that fundamental changes will take place

in this industry situation, enterprises obviously feel different boom temperatures

"our business situation this year is worse than that in the first half of last year. In the near future, the company will take layoffs and salary cuts. The remaining employees are forced to recharge their batteries due to pressure." Zhaohaixin, sales director of Zhengzhou tieweibao Technology Co., Ltd., said in an interview on March 12

Zhengzhou tieweibao Technology Co., Ltd. is an enterprise producing lubricating grease. Its products are mainly used in cement, coal, steel and other industries

according to zhaohaixin, the orders of steel, cement and coal enterprises, the downstream enterprises related to the company's grease products, have decreased significantly, which is mainly to ensure that there are no accidents during the national two sessions, and some steel, coal and other enterprises have temporarily stopped work

in Xu Gao's opinion, although a certain investment growth rate has been maintained at present, the prospect depends on the policy

the export data exceeded expectations, but it should have a negative impact on the relaxation of domestic policies in the context of the pursuit of import and export balance. Xu Gao believes that "the policy signals from the two sessions are not as positive as expected by the market, and the uncertainty in the economic outlook is rising."

the CPI in February released by the National Bureau of statistics rose by 3.2% year-on-year, an increase of 167. Compared with January, the range of elastic coating for building exterior wall was significantly expanded, which enhanced the expectation of tightening. On March 13, zhouxiaochuan, governor of the people's Bank of China, answered Chinese and foreign questions on "monetary policy and financial reform" and revealed that this year's monetary policy will be neutral and tight

"the growth rate of M2 is set at 13%, which actually tends to be tighter than last year and the previous year, emphasizing the basic stability of prices." Zhouxiaochuan said

local investment impulse is strong

the long and large railway lines have reached the peak period of opening to traffic. In the future, railway related investment will turn more to local investment in intercity railway

from January to February, the growth of fixed asset investment by 21.2% became the main driving force for economic growth. Especially, the real estate investment surged to 22.8%

however, with the promulgation of the "national five articles", the government reiterated that it would adhere to the regulation and control policy with purchase and loan restrictions as the core, and resolutely crack down on speculative investment in house purchasing. After 2011, it again asked all regions to publish annual house price control targets. It is difficult to determine whether real estate investment can maintain the current growth trend

"in the context of the re tightening of real estate regulation, unless the policy can promote the infrastructure investment to accelerate significantly." "The stabilization and consolidation of the economy in the second quarter still rely mainly on infrastructure investment," Xu told

it is reported that the main body of fixed asset investment consists of three parts, namely, manufacturing investment (accounting for about 1/3 of the total investment), real estate investment (accounting for 1/4) and infrastructure investment (accounting for 1/4). The investment leader from January to February this year is real estate investment. Its year-on-year growth rate accelerated significantly to 22.8% from 12% in a single month last December. Infrastructure investment also increased slightly, from 16% in December last year to 22.9%. Manufacturing investment remained at a five-year low, with a year-on-year growth rate of only 17%

some analysts believe that the decline in manufacturing investment is mainly affected by the overall weakening environment at the demand side, but it also reflects the low willingness of enterprises to renew their fixed assets and equipment in a new round. "The overall environment is still not very good this year. We have no plans to expand investment and update equipment this year." The person in charge of a toy factory in Dongguan told me

"from the perspective of structure, the sustainability of investment growth depends on the government's attitude towards infrastructure investment." Xu Gao said

according to zhaohaixin, in the first half of last year, the company barely managed to maintain its operation, and its profits could at least maintain the salaries of employees and various taxes to be paid. However, this year's situation is not as good as last year

if the foundation construction makes efforts, it will drive the recovery of demand for steel and cement, and zhaohaixin's iron maintenance technology can also benefit from it. But zhaohaixin is not optimistic: "it will take some time for the company to benefit from infrastructure investment. This benefit will not be transmitted so quickly, and Henan is now vigorously promoting environmental protection and greening." Not only Henan but also Guangdong. The 12th Five Year Plan for the development of urbanization in Guangdong Province, recently released by Guangdong provincial government officials, proposes a goal of increasing the urbanization rate by about 0.8 percentage points per year, reaching 70% in 2015. It can be seen that in the planning of the new round of urbanization process, Guangdong has highlighted the promotion of the green and low-carbon concept and the comprehensive improvement of the urban and rural environment. At present, the demand for high energy consumption production factors is not obvious

from the perspective of industries with rapid growth in the past two months, investment in water and soil, environmental protection and public utilities has become the mainstream, while the growth rate of investment in transportation infrastructure is significantly lower than that in the second half of last year

"considering that transport infrastructure investment is the part of infrastructure investment that has a strong pull on the total demand, it is difficult for the momentum of infrastructure investment at the beginning of this year to form a strong pull on economic growth as in the third quarter of last year. The sluggish growth rate of central government investment projects also proves from another side that policies do not promote infrastructure investment." Xu Gao said

"however, local governments have a strong impulse for infrastructure investment." Dengeryong, an analyst at Changjiang Securities (000783, Guba), who just returned from Hubei research, told me. They visited the Hubei Provincial Development and Reform Commission, Hubei Provincial Communications Investment Company, the fourth survey and Design Institute under China Railway Construction and other departments and enterprises

he disclosed in the latest research report that the enthusiasm of officials of Hubei development and Reform Commission in investment has been significantly improved. Although the central government's attitude has yet to be confirmed by the results during the two sessions, the Department's own judgment is optimistic that the regulation and control will be effectively continued in the second half of last year

"the fourth survey and Design Institute under China Railway Construction believes that the long and large railway lines have reached the peak period of opening to traffic, and in the future, railway related investment will turn more to local investment in intercity railway. Local governments have a stronger willingness to invest in subway or urban rail transit related to municipal construction." Deng eryong said

he said that Hubei Provincial Communications Investment Company was also very optimistic about the investment in 2013 and believed that the high growth rate of transportation construction could be maintained. "Possible obstacles come from funds. As long as the funds are in place, there is no problem in the implementation of new construction." Dengeryong introduced

"although the expectation of monetary tightening is enhanced, infrastructure is still expected to receive credit support this year." During his research, Deng eryong also visited the credit departments of several large banks in Hubei Province. The other party said that the banks were cautious in controlling the total amount of credit, but there was a tilt towards infrastructure

after the two sessions, whether the policy will be started again on the basis: set the drum heater to the normal processing temperature to boost the investment, so as to drive the overall demand and continue the mild recovery momentum. The interviewees believe that these still need further observation in the future

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